My (personal) opinion on why Notion Ink will not beat apple

[Kevin24lg]

The people don't want new things. new things scare people, unless they can trust the company bringing them new things. Think about it, an 8 year old kid wouldn't try some sweets a stranger had recommended to them, but he'd eat almost anything if it was his mate telling him to.

Though to me, Apple are friends, Notion Ink are family.

Yeah, perhaps an 8 year old wouldn't get candy recommended to them by strangers....but I sure as hell would!

Seriously though, the best beers have all been recommended to me by creepy strange old guys at the pub.

By the way, I really like that last line....very endearing. ^_^

The thing that makes me curious is where Notion Ink will go next. Figure if the Adam sells 30,000 units at roughly and average of 500 a pop, that's 15,000,000. I know there's production cost and all that stuff, but thats a nice chunk of change. I wonder what their next project will be, another tablet? maybe a netbook featuring Eden? Very curious indeed.

[brennanyama]

Of course Notion Ink will not 'beat' Apple; realize Apple is one of the greatest marketing success stories in the history of our country. Notion Ink is a small start-up company. It'll take them many many years to reach the level of business entrepreneurship that Apple commands.

Of course, the definition of "beat" is relative, but if you mean in sales, remember Notion Ink is capable of making around 100,000 adams per month. Apple sells that many in just a couple of days.

[valkor]

The people don't want new things. new things scare people, unless they can trust the company bringing them new things.

I agree that most likely for majority new = extra time to learn, extra click to perform, extra time to think. However, don't you personally agree that new = moving forward? This is very general. Here we have a start up company, location: India (with all my respect to this county, seriously), and CEO who is 25 year old. Simply enough they want to make money. I wasn't involved by any means from the very beginning although I've heard about Adam from last CES. I've started reading blog since early October. I might be mistaken but what I see is that they found non standard approach to create fan population by asking others what they think (I doubt they all are geeks), implementing "new things" like PQ screen, and creating UI that simplify tasks. All of that should and I think will be successful. I do have my doubts in terms of future support just based on differences in culture, traditions, and the way business is done differently from country to country. I hope they will learn.

[Grezvany13]

I agree Notion Ink will never beat Apple in it's current state, but that's the same as comparing your neighbour kid with Microsoft (since they both do something with computers).

I think the question should be: "Does the Adam beat the iPad?" Which is very simple: in sales; no, in specs; yes, in performance; we'll see

[dalinian]

Hey Josh, thanks for cross-posting your blog entry. Free speech, debate and discussion really is the lifeblood of human progress – and I vow to shoot down in flames anybody who dares to say otherwise!!!!!1!!

Dialectics and Human Progress
Unfortunately, the ideas of any age are ever the ideas of the ruling class [1], and the fetishisation of the idea of Enterprise A “beating” Corporation B is frankly both most peculiar, and peculiar to capitalism. We are the most highly socialised and the most socially co-operative species on the planet, we thrive in conditions of peaceful co-operation and co-existance, yet from the perspective of the individual (un-enlightened) capitalist it’s a dog-eat-dog world, where you either “beat” the competition or die trying. So IMO it’s not only that “why Notion Ink will not beat apple” is a slightly silly topic of debate, but the very idea that A beating B is any measure of progress, or a good thing, is just plain wrong.

Did early modern humans “beat” Neanderthals? No, about 2.5% of the genome of out-of-Africa descended human populations is derived from our Neanderthal ancestors – we co-operated, interbred, cross-fertilised genomically, socially and culturally, and we all benefit from the results to this day. Did the Romans “beat” the Greeks? While the flourishing of the former ancient culture overlapped and superseded the latter chronologically, they both benefited from the cross-pollination of ideas, culture, technologies, etc. from each other, while the rest of humanity just got along fine without them. I could give other examples, but you prolly grasp the general direction of travel.

While the contention between ideas, cultures, technologies, drives human progress forwards, the benefits our descendants will derive from our age arise from the socialised synthesis of solutions we are co-creating in the here-&-now, which will become, for them in their turn, just one set of the contending ideas, cultures, technologies of their own age. Such is the dialectic of history.

I’m a NotionAddict in part because of the promise of ADAM’s (temporary and contingent) technological superiority; and in part because it seems Rohan and the NI team appreciate the benefits of openness, transparency and co-operation. I think they appreciate that their measure of success lies NOT in “beating Apple”, but in creating an anti-thetical ADAM to Apple’s iPad thesis, and encouraging the global tech-using citizenry to help co-create a better mobile general computer ecosystem synthesis that will transcend both particular machines. (That’s enough dialectics – Ed.)


The International

Of course Notion Ink will not 'beat' Apple; realize Apple is one of the greatest marketing success stories in the history of our country. Notion Ink is a small start-up company. It'll take them many many years to reach the level of business entrepreneurship that Apple commands.

Of course, the definition of "beat" is relative, but if you mean in sales, remember Notion Ink is capable of making around 100,000 adams per month. Apple sells that many in just a couple of days.

Erm... is this a private conversation between Americans, or can the rest of the world join in? For most of us, “our country” ≠ USA. Please be sensitive to the International which is NotionAddicts. Or better still, ditch the poison of Nationalism, by which the ruling class try to keep us as divided as they are, and embrace Internationalism. Let's unite to be global citizens, not merely parochial Yanks, Brits, or Aussies (all other nationalisms are are also deprecated! ).


Fun With Mathematics
Just for fun, let’s take a look at those numbers, using schoolboy back-of-an-envelope 1st-approximation-analysis maths.

Apple iPad: units sold = 7.5 million (as of 30 September 2010) – in the first 5 months [2]

Monthly iPad sales = 7,500,000 ÷ 5 = 1.5 million / month

Daily iPad sales = 1,500,000 ÷ 31 = 48,387 / day

So it would actually take Apple 2.0666708 days to sell 100,000 iPads – brennanyama’s estimate is spot on

How much time T would it take for NI to “beat” Apple’s units sold figure at 30 September 2010?

Suppose NI does manufacture and sell 100,000 ADAMs per month; then:

T = 7,500,000 ÷ 100,000 = 75 months = 6.25 years! (by which time Apple would have sold another 78 x 1,500,000 = 117 million iPads!!)


Real Human Progress
Of course, by 2017, both the iPad v1 and the original ADAM will be long out of production, and hopefully both regarded as world class positive way-markers in the socialised synthesis of solutions to our mobile computing needs which we’ll be using then. And if Notion Ink are a thriving mobile technology enterprise, with an R&D reputation second to none, co-existing peacefully alongside many others, then maybe THAT would be a positive measure of human progress. But not as much as if we’ve collectively kicked the idea of permitting ruling classes to exist into the dustbin of history where it belongs, and are laying the foundations of a borderless, moneyless, classless, stateless & ecologically harmonious global human community. Now THAT'S what I'd call Revolutionary!


Footnotes
[1] The ideas of any age are ever the ideas of the ruling class – for instance:

The ideas of the ruling class are in every epoch the ruling ideas, i.e. the class which is the ruling material force of society, is at the same time its ruling intellectual force. The class which has the means of material production at its disposal, has control at the same time over the means of mental production, so that thereby, generally speaking, the ideas of those who lack the means of mental production are subject to it. The ruling ideas are nothing more than the ideal expression of the dominant material relationships, the dominant material relationships grasped as ideas; hence of the relationships which make the one class the ruling one, therefore, the ideas of its dominance. The individuals composing the ruling class possess among other things consciousness, and therefore think. Insofar, therefore, as they rule as a class and determine the extent and compass of an epoch, it is self-evident that they do this in its whole range, hence among other things rule also as thinkers, as producers of ideas, and regulate the production and distribution of the ideas of their age: thus their ideas are the ruling ideas of the epoch.
~ from ‘Ruling Class and Ruling Ideas’, in ‘The Illusion of the Epoch’, part of Volume I of ‘The German Ideology’ by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, 1846

[2] Apple iPad: units sold = 7.5 million (as of 30 September 2010) – source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPad

[Arbusto]

I agree Notion Ink will never beat Apple in it's current state, but that's the same as comparing your neighbour kid with Microsoft (since they both do something with computers).

You also have to think that Microsoft and Apple both started when computers were a fairly new technology and especially new in the home. So they really made their money by bringing a new product to market. The competition for Apple and MS was really to define the market and public perception about their products' usefulness. Unless the mystery features are something completely unheard of (please please let it be warp drive or teleportation pad), the Adam isn't a new product. It's sounding like a really great product, but NI is trying to step into an already established market.

Even Dell brought a new element to home computing. Dell started in Michael Dell's garage. All he was doing was building computers, but what he did was customize computers and then was among the first to use the web.

I think NI's big challenge is going to be redefining a market or introducing a new element to it.

P.S. @Dal: how long does it take you to create a post? :P With the links and formatting and the pictures. Can definitely tell you're a dedicated addict!

[suravee]

I am not sure if there is any relationships to the topic here, but I think Rohan is one of a visionary guys.

With all clues he left us such as Genesis, Eden, Adam, it just led me to believe that he probably had this fruit in his mind since the beginning.

Regarding Adam as a geek tablet, I totally agree. But I also hope that NI will figure out a way to reach Mr. avg Joe and to keep him excited by releasing new feature or new application on a regular basis via an easy update mechanism.

Until NI finds the right mixes for geek and joe, then we may be able to revisit the idea of Adam eating the fruit again.

At this point, I can only predict that Adam will certainly outperform Nexus one sales of 135.000 units in 74 days. I also think that NI will be able to turn the consumer interest from PQ to LCD version by CES 2011 and their sales will grow to probably (match to Galaxy Tab level) 1 million units by March 2011. Then NI should shift focus to Adam2 as soon as Ipad2 launch in probably April 2011. Let's revisit these figures again in May 2011...shall we?

[shadowself]

apple was the same way, they did not beat microsoft in one day or one year or 10 years. most of their products were expensive and many did not buy. how ever over time apples fame grow and now it has reached microsoft marketshare.

Because you're comparing them to Microsoft, I am assuming you mean they have reached Microsoft's market share in laptops and desktops. Apple's market share of laptops/desktops is around 8%.

If you classify the iPad as a PC (you would then also have to classify the iPod Touch and iPhone as a PC, as they do essentially the same thing with different sized screens) then of course they have a higher market share. I don't really consider the iPad a PC, I consider it an iPod Maxi.

[brennanyama]

...Erm... is this a private conversation between Americans, or can the rest of the world join in? For most of us, “our country” ≠ USA. Please be sensitive to the International which is NotionAddicts. Or better still, ditch the poison of Nationalism, by which the ruling class try to keep us as divided as they are, and embrace Internationalism. Let's unite to be global citizens, not merely parochial Yanks, Brits, or Aussies (all other nationalisms are are also deprecated! ).


Fun With Mathematics
Just for fun, let’s take a look at those numbers, using schoolboy back-of-an-envelope 1st-approximation-analysis maths.

Apple iPad: units sold = 7.5 million (as of 30 September 2010) – in the first 5 months [2]

Monthly iPad sales = 7,500,000 ÷ 5 = 1.5 million / month

Daily iPad sales = 1,500,000 ÷ 31 = 48,387 / day

So it would actually take Apple a little over 4 days to sell 100,000 iPads – pretty close to brennanyama’s estimate

How much time T would it take for NI to “beat” Apple’s units sold figure at 30 September 2010?

Suppose NI does manufacture and sell 100,000 ADAMs per month; then:

T = 7,500,000 ÷ 100,000 = 75 months = 6.25 years! (by which time Apple would have sold another 78 x 1,500,000 = 117 million iPads!!)


Real Human Progress
Of course, by 2017, both the iPad v1 and the original ADAM will be long out of production, and hopefully both regarded as world class positive way-markers in the socialised synthesis of solutions to our mobile computing needs which we’ll be using then. And if Notion Ink are a thriving mobile technology enterprise, with an R&D reputation second to none, co-existing peacefully alongside many others, then maybe THAT would be a positive measure of human progress. But not as much as if we’ve collectively kicked the idea of permitting ruling classes to exist into the dustbin of history where it belongs, and are laying the foundations of a borderless, moneyless, classless, stateless & ecologically harmonious global human community. Now THAT'S what I'd call Revolutionary!...

Ha, I always enjoy reading your posts. Sorry about that, i suppose its easy to forget how the adam craze is so worldwide...my arrogance im afraid. My apologies. Gotta cut me some slak tho, im in hawaii, just about as cut off from the US as any other part of the world

just one thing though, either you typoed or im reading something wrong here...how exactly did you get 4 days?

[smalis]

>>>I’m a NotionAddict in part because of the promise of ADAM’s (temporary and contingent) technological superiority; and in part because it seems Rohan and the NI team appreciate the benefits of openness, transparency and co-operation. I think they appreciate that their measure of success lies NOT in “beating Apple”, but in creating an anti-thetical ADAM to Apple’s iPad thesis, and encouraging the global tech-using citizenry to help co-create a better mobile general computer ecosystem synthesis that will transcend both particular machines.<<<


Exactly right, my sentiments well expressed!

The irony of Apple's "1984" TV spot could not be greater - the incredibly closed IPAD architecture (I can't use it without ITunes? No USB connectivity? No flash? - really?), purging posts complaining about IPhone antenna problems from its own forums (http://mobilementalism.com/2010/07/1...g-big-brother/), its handling of the case of Jason Chen, the blogger who wrote about an allegedly stolen iPhone prototype (viz, John Stewart to Apple: "Remember back in 1984, you had those awesome ads about overthrowing Big Brother? Look in the mirror, man! …It wasn't supposed to be this way - Microsoft was supposed to be the evil one! But you guys are busting down doors in Palo Alto"), etc. - just Google "Apple becoming Big Brother".

I really, really hope NI realizes its promise.